Britain's in-out EU referendum has been set for June 23. Being Europe’s second largest economy by nominal gdp, a British vote to leave the eu could be catastrophic for the union’s integrity, and could spell the collapse of the union itself.
The reason for the referendum is sustained support from parts of the incumbent Conservative Government to leaving the eu, largely due to issues of immigration from Eastern European nations as well as more recent flows of refugees from Syria and its surrounding besieged areas, which has helped herald the rise of right wing groups like ukip, who gained 16.5 percent in 2009’s eu election and 26.6 percent in 2014 (more than any other party in Britain).
David Cameron, who openly supports the United Kingdom’s membership of the eu, is putting a lot on the line to appease the Eurosceptic Conservative backbenchers that have called so fervently for the referendum. As of March 3, a YouGov opinion poll sees the ‘remain’ vote in a slender lead on 40 percent in comparison to the ‘leave’ vote, which is marginally behind on 37 percent.
The results do tend to fluctuate as we get closer to the date of the vote, largely due to the public becoming more attentive to the arguments on each side and as the media uses its influence to flatter either side depending on their political standpoint. This trend is especially so when considering that as many as 20 percent of people polled were undecided and 5 percent said they simply wouldn’t vote at all. Garnering these votes is crucial for the succeeding side.
For Brexit
One of the key arguments for leaving the union is that Britain’s ability to negotiate trade deals with European countries will be aided by the fact they won’t have to abide by bureaucratic eu law. In addition, the added benefits of being able to trade more extensively with countries like China, India and the u.s. also sway people to this side.
Furthermore, the immigration issue is seen by some to be the defining issue that will sway voters either way. Due to the creation of the Schengen Area, anyone holding a passport to any of the 28 eu states is able to travel freely within the other 27 countries. This is seen by many partisan to the ‘leave’ vote to be hugely undesirable for wealthy countries like the Britain, as residents of countries with a less affluent population are seen to flood to Britain to seek employment, which may pay better than in their homeland. In addition, the Schengen Area makes it difficult for non-eu residents to settle in European nations, which they say restricts the flow of intellectual capital to Britain.
One of the most significant changes that came as a result of the introduction of the common eu market was the introduction of uniform laws and regulations that bind all countries. By being a member of the eu, Britain has restricted sovereignty on issues of employment, health and safety, and environmental issues amongst many other areas, and by leaving the union, Britain would regain complete sovereignty over these spheres.
Against Brexit
EU regulations benefit British businesses that do business in the eu by making one standard regulatory framework across the $18 trillion economic zone, meaning all business adhere to one set of rules. Huge regulatory negotiations would need to take place if Britain was to leave the eu, and with the outcome unknown no one can weigh up whether they would be better for British business than the current system or worse.
With 45 percent of British trade coming from the eu, staying in the eu would prevent export tariffs on goods traded to eu members and prevent a risk to the growth experienced since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08. Italian Minister of Economy and Finances, Pier Carlo Padoan has warned Britain would find it complicated to negotiate free-trade deals with Brussels from outside the eu. He said: “Whenever you break an agreement you know what you are going to lose, you do not know what you are going to gain in the next agreement,” according to the Guardian Newspaper.
Furthermore, by leaving the eu, Britain will not simply stop experiencing the amount of immigration they currently see. Countries who are not in the eu see similar levels of immigration as Britain does. Indeed, proponents of remaining within the eu say that the Schengen Area has been, on the whole, positive, despite the housing crisis that currently hangs over Britain. David Cameron would note that the deal he negotiated last month would begin to curtail the levels of economic immigration Britain sees because now a foreign family who come to work in Britain will only be able to receive child benefit payments after four years. However, it must be said, that this will only come into law as of January 1, 2020.