Clark Eyes Top Job

How five men could decide the first woman UN Secretary-General

When Helen Clark announced her historic campaign for the United Nations Secretary-General last Monday, it was met with near universal acclaim from New Zealand media and political figures, who simply could not praise her enough, even if some of it was a little backhanded – Former opponent Don Brash said she was “somewhat cynical, she knows how to manipulate power… I think she can do it effectively as head of the UN”. 

Seven years on from her last foray into partisan politics, the public has mostly forgotten any beef they had with her at the time, and has come to see her as just another example of kiwis shining on the world stage. Unfortunately, it takes a lot more than the support of our tiny nation to win the top job. 

Eight candidates are currently standing, including four women, although punters do like Aunty Helen’s chances: UK bookie Paddy Power has her at a $2.50 payout, with her closest rival Irina Bokova at $2.75. Every other candidate is paying out at $10 or more. 

The real test comes down to winning over five of the most powerful men in the world: Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin, David Cameron, Xi Jinping, and Francois Hollande. Traditionally, the General Assembly votes upon a recommendation by the Security Council, and these five men represent the five permanent member nations of that council, who are also the only members entrusted with veto power. 

Helen Clark is reportedly the favoured candidate of the United States, who have in the past expressed discontent with the UNDP’s expenditures, but have been impressed by the cost-cutting measures put in place under Clark’s leadership. France and the UK also appear to be natural allies. China has historical ties to Clark, having negotiated a free trade deal with her while she was Prime Minister, which could bode well for her chances of receiving their backing. 

The decider will ultimately be Russia and the notoriously unpredictable Vladimir Putin. By convention, the Secretary-General is rotated around the five geographic groups which make up the UN. The Eastern European Group, of which Russia is a part, has never had one of their own elected, and clearly believes it to be their turn.  If Russia decides to swing its dick around and veto every pick from outside its regional zone, it would leave Helen Clark’s candidacy dead in the water, unless the US is willing to play hardball and threaten vetos right back at them.

Working in Clark’s favour is the fact that Eastern Europe does not seem to be settled on any one candidate, with six currently running. Even Irina Bokova, who is seen as a favourite of Russia’s, faced a rather intense partisan battle to win Bulgaria’s nomination. The fact that Helen Clark is receiving the full-throated support from John Key and Murray McCully despite their political differences, could work in her favour as a compromise candidate. 

In the end, it seems almost certain we see a woman rise from the process as the winner, whether that be Helen Clark or not. There are simply too many qualified women running and too much political pressure for the UN to overlook the opportunity. If the member states decide that the most important criteria for the eventual nominee is that they are female and from Eastern Europe, Helen is probably shit out of luck. But if they decide to go with the woman who has the most outstanding qualifications, experience, and pure skills of diplomacy and realpolitik, then we could have a very real chance of seeing a Kiwi at the top of the world.

This article first appeared in Issue 7, 2016.
Posted 10:48am Sunday 17th April 2016 by Joel MacManus.