University of Otago scientists from the Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme (BODE³) have published research in the international journal Tobacco Control last month advocating various tobacco endgame strategies.
This follows a 2011 announcement, reacting to a Māori Affairs Select Committee report the previous year, that the NZ Government were aiming for New Zealand to be Smokefree by 2025. This is directed at achieving “minimal levels of smoking and tobacco availability" by 2025.
Recent changes in legislation have furthered the ‘Smokefree 2025’ goal by yearly increases in taxation on tobacco products until 2020, standardised tobacco packaging, the legalisation of electronic cigarettes containing nicotine and the provision of governmental funding for significant anti-smoking programmes and advertising.
The Trans-Tasman collaborative study between the University of Melbourne and the University of Otago used New Zealand specific data to assess the 2025 Smokefree goal. The research identified that, despite the Government initiatives, New Zealand “is not on track to reach [the Government implemented 2025 Smokefree goal]” according to the research, led by Frederieke Sanne van der Deen (pictured). To reach this aim, BODE³ scientists are calling for “bold and new measures” to reduce tobacco retail, prevalence and consumption.
Using double-tiered computer simulation, the effects of various strategies were modelled to assess their potency. Firstly, a future-smoking prevalence model was applied, distinguishing between age, sex and ethnicity. This was layered with a multi-state life-table model that estimated quality of life and health costs of New Zealand’s population using projected trends of smoking prevalence.
Approaches championed by the study focused on restricting tobacco retail, reducing nicotine levels in tobacco products, prohibiting tobacco sales to future generations, and the gradual reduction of commercial sales of tobacco. Particular focus was given to the significantly higher rates of smoking amongst Māori in comparison to non-Māori (35 percent of Māori currently identifying as smoking daily, compared to the non-Māori rate of 15 percent). All of the tobacco endgame strategies addressed were found to progress the 2025 Smokefree goal, as well as lessen the aforementioned ethnic gap.
Providing an evidence base for the efficacy of smoking strategies is a major step towards lessening the prevalence of smoking in New Zealand, although Zoe Hawke, General Manager of the National Tobacco Control Advocacy Service for Hāpai Te Hauora contends that tobacco lobbyists will likely oppose instigation of the Smokefree measures proposed.
Supported by Hāpai Te Hauora, the study highlighted the effects future smoking prevalence would have on population health, and health sector costs. The researchers propose that the initiatives should be applied, and then ‘fine-tuned’ once their validity and response have been measured. The research asserts that this will result in substantive population health gains and cost-savings for New Zealand’s health system.