Hope for the end of AIDS in Africa is disappearing, with recent warnings by health experts suggesting that ‘the end of AIDS by 2030’ is not actually a very achievable goal.
The number of infections is rising and the input of funding internationally is declining, possibly due to the ‘hope’ that this slogan has given. Progress over the last 15 years had been promising and the United Nations has set a goal for the end of AIDS by 2030. Donor governments, including the US, have endorsed this goal with Barack Obama stating that the end is in sight.
Bill Gates, whose foundation invests heavily in preventing HIV, spoke at the recent International AIDS Conference in Durban, South Africa. He warned of trouble ahead, “if we only do as well as we have been doing, the number of people with HIV will go up even beyond its previous peak”. The current status globally is that there are around 38 million people living with HIV, and 17 million of those are on drugs that prevent the virus transmitting to others.
The Guardian interviewed Professor Peter Piot, the first executive director of UNAIDS. Piot believes that drugs will not stop AIDS, “we will not end HIV as an epidemic just by medical means,” suggesting instead that cultural change, which is far harder to bring about, will be necessary. Drug resistance is an obvious issue, and it is only now beginning to be monitored in Africa. The Guardian noted that a World Health Organisation (WHO) report showed a 40 percent resistance to one of the drugs given to those in lower socio-economic countries. Those in Europe and North America can often afford to move onto different treatments, which can cost more than $20,000 US a year. This cost is unimaginable in comparison to the $100 US per year cost for the basic regime in Africa, a regime yet to reach everyone affected.
Al Jazeera spoke to Dr Matshidiso Rebecca Moeti, WHO regional director for Africa in December of last year, and she addressed the claims of ending AIDS by the year 2030. She suggested that with substantial and complex challenges, including weak health systems, and too many new infections the goal to end the epidemic “is undoubtedly ambitious”, especially given reduced funding. A recent report from the Kaiser Family Foundation and UNAIDS said funding from donor governments fell last year for the first time in five years, from 8.6 billion in 2014 to 7.5 billion US dollars. Given reduced funding, drug resistance and increased rates of infection, the end of AIDS by 2030 is probably not a realistic expectation.